Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality

Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality It's not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorrect or misconstrued headlines is growing larger as the Iran war persists. It makes sense considering the current lull in both military and diplomatic developments. People who write and profit from breaking newswires are eager to cash in on clicks and dollars. Around 1pm ET today, several newswires created obvious volatility for bonds/oil/stocks. These involved an apparent resignation of a key Iranian official from the negotiations team and the implication that Tehran's activated air defenses meant a breach of the ceasefire. Both were refuted. Markets corrected slightly, but a certain amount of damage was done (also, markets may not believe the refutations). The net impact on bonds remained small with 10s only up a few bps and MBS down just over an eighth of a point. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Apr)/11 1,821K vs 1820K f'cast, 1818K prev Jobless Claims (Apr)/18 214K vs 212K f'cast, 207K prev Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM A hair stronger after being flat overnight. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields are up nearly 1bp at 4.295 11:54 AM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.298 01:43 PM Weakest levels. MBS down nearly a quarter point and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.349 02:31 PM Bouncing back a bit as previous headlines have been mostly retracted. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.313