Thursday saw a continuation of the recent trend of very low volatility for mortgage rates. The average lender's top-tier 30yr fixed rates were perfectly unchanged from yesterday and in the same narrow range as the past 7 business days (6.29-6.33%). Despite the uneventful outcome, there was some underlying market volatility mid-day following a series of war-related headlines. The news involved the status of Iran's negotiation team as well as potential indications of air strikes in Iran. The market reacted swiftly (a resumption of hostilities would push rates/oil higher and stocks lower), but several of the headlines were subsequently retracted/clarified and the overall market reaction ended up being relatively small. A handful of mortgage lenders responded to the market movement and increased rates. Bonds (which dictate rates) remain a bit worse off compared to this morning, so if there's not a bond market rebound by tomorrow morning, other lenders could make similar adjustments.
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the E…