Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recovery occurred after headlines said US/Iran negotiations could make a breakthrough according to an Iranian diplomatic source. Social media quickly dubbed the news as "fake," but a legitimate version exists on ria.ru's website. So the news wasn't fake, it was just really really vague and toothless. Even so, bonds reacted to the tune of about 2bps and have been in a choppy, narrow range since then.
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the E…