Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forceful escalation under certain circumstances. While that's nothing new, it wasn't what the market was hoping to hear last night. As a result, oil prices and bond yields spiked and stocks sold symmetrically. Bonds are juggling the dueling narratives of inflation and economic fallout--a fact that has helped them avoid tighter correlation with the oil price spike.
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holi…