Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens in Iran after tomorrow night's deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels.
Econ Data / Events
ISM N-Mfg PMI (Mar)
54.0 vs 55 f'cast, 56.1 prev
ISM Services Employment (Mar)
45.2 vs -- f'cast, 51.8 prev
ISM Services New Orders (Mar)
60.6 vs -- f'cast, 58.6 prev
ISM Services Prices (Mar)
70.7 vs -- f'cast, 63.0 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:03 AM A hair weaker overnight but rallying into positive territory in early trading. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.332
01:05 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.334
03:05 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.331
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the…