Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two notable bumps in volume after the 7:30am Challenger job cut data and the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. Of the two, the latter was much more clearly linked to gains. Challenger definitely got a small volume bump, but it's hard to say that the gains weren't already in progress when it came out. The morning's labor market data will be rounded out by the report with the biggest potential (emphasis on "potential") reaction: Job Openings at 10am ET.
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday’s jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). …