No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning's ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week's heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day's range remained inside yesterday's and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on Thursday morning.
Econ Data / Events
ADP Employment
22k vs 48k f'cast, 41k prev
ISM Biz Activity (Jan)
57.4 vs 56.0 prev
ISM N-Mfg PMI (Jan)
53.8 vs 53.5 f'cast, 54.4 prev
ISM Services Employment (Jan)
50.3 vs 52.3 f'cast, 52.0 prev
ISM Services New Orders (Jan)
53.1 vs 57.9 prev
ISM Services Prices (Jan)
66.6 vs 64.3 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:24 AM No major reaction to ADP data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.27
10:03 AM Weaker ISM Services and a slight rally in bonds. 10yr was 4.29, but now down to 4.272. MBS are 2 ticks (.06) off the lows, but still down 2 ticks on the day.
02:53 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.276
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday’s jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). …