Uncommonly Uneventful Day
No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There's just not much to say. Unlike the average trading day of late, bonds held inside a very narrow range AND didn't visibly respond to any major Iran war news (and the typical oil price volatility that follows). Oil prices definitely moved a bit, and bond yields generally followed, but the range was well inside yesterday's. For a few minutes, it looked like bonds were going to struggle with the job openings data, but they quickly found their footing and drifted sideways into the close.
Market Movement Recap
09:36 AM Modestly stronger overnight but nearly unchanged now with MBS up only 1 tick (.03). 10yr down 1bp at 4.446
10:12 AM Some selling after JOLTS data, but stabilizing now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just over half a bp at 4.45
Mortgage Rates Near 1-Year Highs
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you’re an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let’s…