Slightly Stronger But There’s a Catch

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+.  While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (Jul)/04 215.0K vs 218K f'cast, 215K prev Market Movement Recap 09:21 AM Fairly flat overnight and just a hair stronger now. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.566 12:35 PM Additional gains, still correlated with oil prices. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.543 03:35 PM Off best levels, but still stronger. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.543