2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow.
While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the broader range, this has more to do with shifts in the yield curve. For instance, 2yr yields are hugging the lower end of their 4-month range.
MBS and mortgage rates are somewhere in between, which is why they've been outperforming 10yr yields relative to the highs/lows of their respective ranges.
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in sight. Some reporters pointed toward Fed Chair Powell’s criminal inquiry as rattling the market, but bo…