The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% year over year. Apparently, it's hard to get excited about buying bonds with headline inflation over 3%, no matter how much one expects it. Yields are actually modestly higher after the data, adding to modest overnight weakness. That said, through 6am, 10yr yields have held in a narrow range that has topped out 2bps below yesterday's highs.
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Another day, another chance to sort through a barrage of war-related headlines to see which ones mattered to the bond market. In today’s c…