The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% year over year. Apparently, it's hard to get excited about buying bonds with headline inflation over 3%, no matter how much one expects it. Yields are actually modestly higher after the data, adding to modest overnight weakness. That said, through 6am, 10yr yields have held in a narrow range that has topped out 2bps below yesterday's highs.
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the…