In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates, the latter have also been in a narrow range with average top tier 30yr fixed rates of 6.15-6.20%. Yesterday's employment-related data helped bonds improve. Many lenders made mid-day improvements to mortgage rates yesterday, but there was enough of a tailwind that the average lender was lower again this morning--now in line with the lower boundary of the recent range. Next Wednesday's labor market data is a higher stakes event--one that could either bring rates back to the multi-year lows seen in January or push them up to the highest levels since December.
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As an industry, we tend to care about interest rates, especially mortgage rates. (A recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”) But there is a group of people much less sensitive to rates and represent competition to lenders. All…