Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility was minimal, and bonds are fairly close to unchanged in the first few hours. The sort of serious trading that sends bigger picture signals won't arrive until next week. As such, even if today's trading misbehaves (e.g. 10yr breaking above 4.20%), it wouldn't be as alarming as next week holding above 4.20%.
Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday’s close. Another 2bps of improvement followed this morning’s ADP em…