Modest Incidental Weakness
Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winter holiday season without even attempting to break outside the narrow prevailing range. This is especially true for shorter duration Treasuries and MBS. It has been and continues to be the case that we won't get a sense of the next wave of momentum until next week at the earliest. It could take even longer if the econ data fails to make a compelling case for better or worse.
Econ Data / Events
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8 vs 51.8 f'cast, 52.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:35 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.165
01:29 PM weakest levels of the day. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.186
Not Quite The Rally You’d Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Not Quite The Rally You’d Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Today’s vitals might be a bit confusing at first glance. Payrolls came in at -23k versus forecasts of 80k. At most moments in history, that would be wor…