Modest Incidental Weakness
Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winter holiday season without even attempting to break outside the narrow prevailing range. This is especially true for shorter duration Treasuries and MBS. It has been and continues to be the case that we won't get a sense of the next wave of momentum until next week at the earliest. It could take even longer if the econ data fails to make a compelling case for better or worse.
Econ Data / Events
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8 vs 51.8 f'cast, 52.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:35 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.165
01:29 PM weakest levels of the day. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.186
Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher. Wed…