Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd expect a much bigger reaction to an official signing--something that could happen in a matter of days or continue to be punted indefinitely. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Jun) 48.9 vs 46 f'cast, 44.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Jun) 4.6% vs -- f'cast, 4.8% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Jun) 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.9% prev U Mich conditions (Jun) 48.4 vs 46.2 f'cast, 45.8 prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Just a hair weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.483 10:03 AM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.495 10:48 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.503 01:00 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.482