In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market. Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading to higher bond yields (where the correlation has been anything but reliable).
Econ Data / Events
MBA Purchase Index (Feb)/20
149.7 vs -- f'cast, 157.1 prev
MBA Refi Index (Feb)/20
1432.9 vs -- f'cast, 1375.9 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:58 AM Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05
11:31 AM MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042
01:46 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.041
Bonds Finally Trade Something Other Than The War
Similar Volatility But in a Friendlier Direction
The bond market saw a roughly identical amount of volatility on each of the last 2 days of the week, but Friday’s version played out in a friendlier direction. H…