In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market. Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading to higher bond yields (where the correlation has been anything but reliable).
Econ Data / Events
MBA Purchase Index (Feb)/20
149.7 vs -- f'cast, 157.1 prev
MBA Refi Index (Feb)/20
1432.9 vs -- f'cast, 1375.9 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:58 AM Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05
11:31 AM MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042
01:46 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.041
Mortgage Rates Mostly Holding Long-Term Lows
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are “in the 5s,” but at 6.00%, today’s MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday’s multi-year low. For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almo…