General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continued to improve throughout. The first rally followed the 8:20am CME open--a common time of day to see a bit of extra momentum and volume. The next leg of the rally played out in the 10am hour which is when stocks did all of their selling for the day. That dynamic lends itself to the conclusion that the broader market is trading in a "risk-off" pattern amid global trade uncertainty.
Econ Data / Events
Factory Orders
-0.7 vs -0.5 f'cast, 2.7 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:52 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.061
11:37 AM Best levels of the day. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.033
02:25 PM Holding at strongest levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.025
Mortgage Rates Dip Back Into The 5’s
This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond …