Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data

There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to a lesser extent, a fairly chunky downward revision in GDP. Even then, the reaction was microscopic and hard to separate from a nice little drop in oil prices that had been underway since around 4am ET. All of that has only been worth a 1.6bp drop in 10yr yields and just over an eight of a point of improvement in MBS. 
Share the Post:

Related Posts

Hurrying Up And Waiting

As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night’s ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly little fanfare. Yes, the ceasefire was technically extended…

Read More

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among the…

Read More