While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the 2nd Friday in March simply because there weren't enough work days in February to compile the data. To some extent, tomorrow's ADP and ISM data could serve as supporting actors. But in the meantime, bonds continue kicking around on a piece of ground in their hometown, waiting for someone or something to show them the way. 4.2-4.3 is the new 4.1-4.2.
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday’s jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). …