Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil’s Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism

Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism While there were no incredibly memorable sound bytes on the Iran war today, there were a few headlines that proved to be actionable for financial markets. The most actionable (by a wide margin) was a report on Fox News around 10am quoting a senior admin official as saying "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." This was paraphrased by Fox as "Senior Trump Admin. Official: Strong Indicators Toward Reaching Agreement With Iran." Oil and bond yields dropped on the news and both moves continued into the afternoon. Stocks rallied and have now essentially fully recovered the war-related losses. Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Mar) 0.1% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.5% prev Core PPI y/y (Mar) 3.8% vs 4.1% f'cast, 3.9% prev PPI m/m (Mar) 0.5% vs 1.1% f'cast, 0.7% prev PPI y/y (Mar) 4.0% vs 4.6% f'cast, 3.4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:32 AM No real reaction to PPI data despite being much lower than expected.  MBS unchanged on the day and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.293 10:39 AM Best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.277 02:08 PM Best levels. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.255