Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness

Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground early and were unable to recover it by the 3pm close. On the other hand, there was a decent rally on Wednesday that set a high bar for additional gains.  In other words, it's a victory to merely hold close to yesterday's closing levels. Data passed without a trace, either because it was stale, near consensus, or both. There was better buying in the afternoon--a fact that's consistent with our observation that the EU session had an impact today.  The afternoon bond market recovery commenced when EU markets closed. Correlation, yes, but not necessarily causality.  Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Jan)/10 1,849K vs -- f'cast, 1884K prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ3 2.90% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.6% prev Corporate profitsQ3 4.7% vs 4.4% f'cast, 0.2% prev GDPQ3 4.4% vs 4.3% f'cast, 3.8% prev GDP Final SalesQ3 4.5% vs 4.6% f'cast, 7.5% prev Jobless Claims (Jan)/17 200K vs 212K f'cast, 198K prev PCE Prices (Q/Q)Q3 2.8% vs 2.8% f'cast, 2.1% prev Core PCE (m/m) (Nov) 0.2% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Nov) 2.8% vs 2.8% f'cast, 2.7% prev PCE (y/y) (Nov) 2.8% vs 2.8% f'cast, 2.7% prev PCE prices (m/m) (Nov) 0.2% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.2% prev Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Modestly weaker overnight and no reaction to AM data so far. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.258 10:30 AM No major reaction to PCE data. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.261 12:37 PM Bouncing back a bit. MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up only 1.3bps at 4.254 03:22 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.249