Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today's ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of the headline and new orders. Even though this report isn't as much of a market mover as the non-manufacturing version, this is a big enough beat to make an exception. Bonds are clearly responding, and not in a rate-friendly way.
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would bring news that the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, you wouldn’t be crazy to think it wou…